Could the Atlanta Braves trade for Randy Arozarena?

Tampa Bay is thought to be trading several players this summer; may Atlanta use this as an opportunity to get a full-time left fielder?

The Atlanta Braves are aiming to replenish their pitching staff this offseason as they make another run at the World Series in 2024, but there are some unanswered issues regarding what they do in left field.

Eddie Rosario had a good season, batting.While being the everyday starter versus right-handers, he hit 255 with 21 home runs. However, Rosario’s platoonmate Kevin Pillar has already stated that he is leaving, and his contract only has a 2024 club option for $9 million remaining.

Is it possible for Atlanta to improve by trading for an everyday starter in Randy Arozarena of the Tampa Bay Rays?

Why would Tampa Bay part ways with Arozarena?
At first sight, it appears that Tampa Bay would be willing to part ways with Arozarena. The American League’s 2021 Rookie of the Year is coming off his second consecutive 20-homer season, batting.254 with a.789 OPS in 151 games. He made his first All-Star Team this year and has three years of team control remaining, entering his first year of arbitration this winter.

But here’s the catch: he’s going to arbitration.

 

Tampa Bay has sixteen players eligible for arbitration this winter, and according to MLB Trade Rumors arbitration forecasts, retaining all 16 of them would cost more over $45 million.

Tampa Bay’s overall salary last year was $79 million, but its expected payroll would exceed $130 million if all of those players were kept.

Last week, we examined the prospect of Atlanta dealing for Tyler Glasnow in his final year of contract control – he’s owed $25 million in 2024, and moving him would go a long way toward lowering that payroll total next year.

However, if he is retained, Tampa Bay must make more moves. Only four Rays are expected to earn more than $3 million in arbitration, so it’s clear what the strategy would be: Several members of the gang, which includes infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Aaron Civale, Arozarena, and slugging Harold Ramirez, would be required to leave town.

 

Civale was acquired at the trade deadline last season for top prospect Kyle Manzardo, so let’s assume he stays. Paredes had a breakout year in 2023, playing all three infield positions other than shortstop and batting.At barely 24 years old, he has 250 hits and 31 home runs. Let’s presume he’s also staying.

Arozarena and Ramirez are the last remaining players. Ramirez batted.313 but also started 99 of his 122 games at designated hitter, with only a few runs scored in the outfield corners and at first base. Arozarena is also the most expensive of the bunch.

MLBTR predicts Arozarena to earn $9 million in his first year of arbitration this season, which is also the identical amount of Rosario’s club option, thus the money is a wash.

The purchase cost is the more difficult aspect.

 

Arozarena will involve some effort, and it will most likely be painful. Tampa Bay has a perennial Top 5 farm system in baseball, and they’re especially rich in young position player quality. Furthermore, the Rays face 40-man roster crunches every autumn and frequently need to deal high-minors prospects to avoid losing them in the Rule 5 draft for next to nothing.

So, if you want Arozarena, you’ll have to pitch. Pitching is young and manageable. They won’t want Vaughn Grissom since they have their own Vaughn Grissom clones in Isaac Paredes, Curtis Mead, Osleivis Basabe, and…

No, they’ll be looking for young pitching. And what about Arozarena, a dependable all-around player? One who has had 600 or more plate appearances in each of the last three seasons, with at least 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a wRC+ of 120 or higher in all three? (Oh, and he doesn’t have platoon splits because he batted precisely.In 2023, he will face 254 batters from both the left and right sides.

It will have to be good, controllable pitching.

According to our prospect rankings, the discussion will begin with #5 prospect RHP Owen Murphy or #3 Spencer Schwellenbach. Because they’ve had so many rotation injuries, you might be able to convince them to take on an MLB-ready starter like Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd as the second element of the trade, but your second asset is likely to be another pre-R5 prospect. Perhaps as high as OF Luis Guanipa (#7), who is still years away from Rule 5 eligibility, but possibly in the mid-teens – perhaps Jhancarlos Lara (#14).

So, what are the chances of this happening?
To be honest, it’s quite low. Players like these do not get traded too often.

But when they do, it’s for monetary gain. I recall the Marcell Ozuna deal between Miami and St. Louis, in which Miami received both Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in exchange for Ozuna (and later traded Gallen for Jazz Chisholm).

Hopefully this trade, if Atlanta makes it, doesn’t end up going like the Ozuna trade went for St. Louis.

What do you think? Would you make this deal for Randy Arozarena

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