Broncos predictions at NFL midseason: There’s no replacing Russell Wilson in 2023

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Denver Broncos are emerging from their bye with a two-game winning streak, but they face a massive test on the road against the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. The game should tell us a lot about whether Denver can make anything out of a season that includes an embarrassing 1-5 start.

We don’t have to wait that long, though, to gaze into our crystal ball. Here are five Broncos predictions for the second half of the season:

Broncos will finish with a losing record
Broncos coach Sean Payton was aware as training camp began that his team needed to get off to a quick start. Three of the Broncos’ first five games would be at home — all against opponents who failed to make the postseason in 2022. One of the two road games in that span was a trip to Chicago to play a Bears team that earned the No. 1 overall pick by virtue of its 3-14 record last season. It was a time to pick up wins and build confidence before the teeth of the schedule arrived.

Instead, Denver won only one game among those opening five, suffered a 50-point loss in Miami and ultimately began the season 1-5. The Broncos have since won two straight, including a long-overdue triumph over the division-dominating Chiefs, and it has become easier to envision Denver picking up more victories during the remaining nine games. But the embarrassing start will ultimately prove to be insurmountable as it relates to a playoff charge.

There would still be significant value in the Broncos posting a winning record the rest of the way. Going 5-4 down the stretch would mean Denver won seven of its final 11 games overall to finish 8-9. That would be the Broncos’ best record since 2016 and would build momentum as they finally have relative continuity in an offseason. I can envision a 5-4 finish that features wins at home against the Vikings, Chargers and Patriots, and victories on the road against the Texans and Raiders. That would mean a loss at home to the Browns and road losses against the Bills, Lions and Chargers. In this scenario, the Broncos would still lament the poor start, but there would be real positives to build on as Payton prepared for his second season in charge.

The Broncos have bigger aspirations, believing they can become just the fifth team since 1970 to make the playoffs after losing five of their first six games. The last team to do it was the Washington Commanders in 2020, but they got into the playoffs by winning the NFC East with a 7-9 record. The division-winning path is not available to the Broncos. They would likely have to go 7-2 in order to make the postseason, maybe 6-3 if things really fell their way.

Even during back-to-back wins before entering the bye, the Broncos didn’t perform convincingly enough to suggest there is a historic-type run ahead.

Russell Wilson finishes season as starting QB, and then …
I’m not ready to make a prediction on whether Wilson will be Denver’s starting quarterback in 2024. There are simply too many variables clouding the outlook at the moment. Where does Denver finish this season? Will the Broncos be in a position to select one of the draft’s top quarterbacks? Is there a replacement they could find through other avenues?

What I do believe is that Payton has been largely pleased with how Wilson has handled the role this season, and No. 3 will remain his starter unless things were to completely unravel.

Yes, Wilson had a horrendous outing during Denver’s Week 6 loss in Kansas City. He has had costly fumbles that have hurt the Broncos in three of their losses. Wilson, who turns 35 later this month, is also fifth in the NFL in touchdown passes (16) and fifth in passer rating (101.7). He has been far more accurate this season than in 2022. His completion rate has jumped from 60.5 percent to 66.1, and his off-target percentage of 6.9 percent is the lowest in the league among quarterbacks who have started at least four games, according to TruMedia. He is still the quarterback that gives this team its best chance to win, and that may be true by a significant margin.

“The things we’ve seen that I’ve been encouraged with are the off-schedule plays,” Payton said Monday when asked to assess Wilson’s performance. “He does a great job of working the pocket, climbing the pocket. He made a really good throw to (Jerry) Jeudy last week (against the Chiefs) doing that — Courtland (Sutton) the same way. Then, continuing to look at reducing the turnovers, managing the game the right way and understanding who we’re playing and how we’re playing it — all of those things.”

As long as Wilson is following that script, the Broncos aren’t going to be in a hurry to move on from their veteran quarterback, even if an injury in the second half of the season would complicate how they approach his future with the franchise. The real question is whether Wilson can show enough growth in his grasp of Payton’s scheme during the second half of the season to prove he’s still Denver’s best option next season.

Javonte Williams will become Broncos’ first 1,000-yard rusher since 2019
It is not a coincidence that the Broncos’ two straight wins included Williams’ two best rushing outputs of the season. Williams rushed for 167 yards on 42 carries in Denver’s two games before the bye week, carrying the ball more than any running back in the league besides the Giants’ Saquon Barkley (57) during that stretch. Williams is now the tip of the blunt spear that is Payton’s offensive attack. The Broncos want to run the ball effectively, limit Wilson’s exposure in the dropback passing game and take care of the football. It all points to a continued extensive workload for Denver’s 23-year-old starting running back.

Williams, who is now more than 13 months removed from an ACL tear, appears to be gaining more confidence as a runner each week, more closely resembling the battering ram who rushed for 903 yards as Denver’s No. 2 back in 2021. Williams essentially missed two games during the first half of this season — he exited a Week 4 win against the Bears after two carries and then missed a Week 5 loss to the Jets — so he has ground to make up.

Assuming he’s able to play in Denver’s nine remaining games, he’ll need to average 71.4 yards per contest. The chase will likely come down to the final game. But I’ve seen enough from Payton’s run-heavy offense adjustment over the past three weeks to believe Williams will become the first Broncos running back since Phillip Lindsay in 2019 to go over 1,000 yards.

Pat Surtain II will be a first-team All-Pro again
Surtain is human. He has picked up a few more holding calls than usual this season. He was burned for a long touchdown late in a 50-point loss to the Dolphins in Week 3. He has missed the occasional tackle.

He has also, once again, been arguably the best cornerback in football. Surtain has looked every bit as dominant as he was in 2022 when he was named a first-team All-Pro in just his second season. He can at times shut down an entire side of the field, as proficient in zone schemes as he is locking up some of the league’s top receivers in one-on-one settings. In Denver’s 24-9 victory against the Chiefs in Week 8, Surtain was instrumental in limiting superstar tight end Travis Kelce to six catches for 58 yards. It’s all pointing toward another All-Pro recognition.

What could follow from there for Surtain is a record-breaking new contract. As a first-round pick in 2021, Surtain will be eligible this offseason to sign a lucrative extension with the Broncos. He is already under contract for 2024 at a cap hit of $6.7 million. And the Broncos will almost certainly pick up the fifth-year option that would guarantee his salary in 2025, which would be roughly $19.5 million if he makes a second Pro Bowl at the end of this season. But both of those figures could simply be placeholders as Surtain and the Broncos work on a new deal. The highest-paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of total contract value is Denzel Ward of the Browns, who signed a five-year deal in 2022 worth as much as $100.5 million. That would be the floor in a negotiation with Surtain, who would likely also seek to top Ward’s league-leading $70.3 million in guarantees.

By negotiating a new contract with Surtain, the Broncos could make his number for 2024 at or below the $6.7 million he is scheduled to count against the cap. And the 2025 number could approximate the 2025 fifth-year option figure. That would give the Broncos until 2026 before Surtain’s cap figure really started to rise. The Broncos will have numerous financial puzzles to tackle this offseason, and it could begin with a decision on Wilson’s future.