College Football Playoff projections: How Ohio State-Penn State will affect the playoff

How important is Saturday’s game between Penn State and Ohio State? It is the most important game for the rest of the regular season in terms of College Football Playoff impact, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

While both teams have games against No. 2 Michigan coming up (see below), the winner of this game will be among the three top contenders for the Big Ten East title.The most important remaining games
Penn State vs. Ohio State, Oct. 21 Michigan vs. Penn State, Nov. 25 Michigan vs. Penn State, Nov. 11 Washington vs. USC, Nov. 4 LSU vs. Alabama, Nov. 4

What effect will Saturday’s outcome have on the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes’ playoff chances?

Penn State has a 67% chance of winning.
Penn State suffers a defeat: 17%
Ohio State has a 74% chance of winning.
Ohio State has a 24% loss rate.

Penn State has a 15% chance of winning the Big Ten championship game, while Ohio State has a 25% chance of winning the Big Ten championship game.

USC’s last chance
Is USC’s playoff chances over after its loss to Notre Dame?

Just barely. The Trojans’ chances of making the playoffs are down to 2%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. If the Trojans win out, they will be a one-loss Power 5 team, which means they have a good chance (77%, according to the Predictor). The problem is that the model does not believe that is at all likely. USC is now ranked 15th in FPI, with games remaining against Utah, Washington, and at Oregon. USC has a 5% chance of beating all of those teams plus Cal and UCLA. Even if the Trojans defy the odds and win the regular season, they would have to defeat one of the top teams.

The implications of the Tennessee-Alabama rivalry
It’s not quite on the level of Penn State-Ohio State, but the Tide-Vols rivalry game has plenty of playoff implications, with Alabama sitting at 6-1 and ranked No. 11 in the country.

If Alabama avenges last year’s 52-49 loss in Knoxville, Nick Saban’s team has a 31% chance of making the CFP, according to the predictor. Tennessee’s chances increase to 5% if it wins.