Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: Prediction, point spread, odds, best bet
We are entering Week 12 of the college football season and boy, is it a big one for the Iowa Hawkeyes. This one has a lot riding on it. It is Senior Day for a team that prides itself on experience. It is also Iowa’s chance to punch their ticket to Indianapolis on their own accord with a win.
Iowa is 8-2 overall with a 5-2 mark in Big Ten play. They have a commanding lead on the Big Ten West and with a win, they outright clinch the division after securing a share of the title last week.
Illinois comes in with a 5-5 overall record and a 3-4 mark in Big Ten play after a thrilling overtime win over Indiana last week. The Illini are fighting for postseason bowl eligibility and would love nothing more than to spoil the day for Iowa.
Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. CT at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 18 and if you’re looking to do some last-minute betting research, you’re in luck! We’ll give you the latest point spread, money-line odds, and over/under number, as well as the information you’ll need to make the smartest bet.
Point spread: Iowa -3.5 (-105)
Money line: Iowa -160, Illinois +135
Over-under: 30.5
Injury report
Iowa:
Cooper DeJean, CB: out for season (leg)
Cade McNamara, QB: out for season (knee)
Luke Lachey, TE: out for season (ankle)
Erick All, TE: out for season (knee)
Diante Vines, WR: doubtful (undisclosed)
Steven Stilianos, TE: questionable (undisclosed)
T.J. Hall, DB: questionable (undisclosed)
Illinois:
Pat Bryant, WR: questionable (undisclosed)
Kaden Feagin, RB: questionable (shoulder)
Josh McCray, RB: out for season (neck)
Adian Laugherty, RB: out for season (knee)
Matthew Bailey, DB: out for season (shoulder)
Demetrius Hill, DB: out for season (knee)
Malachi Hood, LB: out for season (achilles)
Jordan Anderson, RB: out for season (knee)
Forecast
Temperature: High of 57, low of 30
Precipitation: 0%
Wind: 9mph west with gusts up to 20mph
Another pristine day for football inside Kinnick Stadium for the teams and fans alike. This weekend has had its fair share of games below the freezing line that I have sat through and this weather is ideal.
Tailgates will be going strong for the final home game of the season with a chance to lock up a trip to Indianapolis. The intensity and electricity inside Kinnick are going to be full force this weekend.
Best Bet
Best Bet: Under 30.5 total points
Riley’s Best Bet Record: 8-2
Another week, another win with the best bet. Last week’s moneyline pick moved us to 8-2 on the year matching Iowa’s overall record. I can only hope that you have been following along.
This week, we are back on a total pick. This game is going under 30 points. Last year’s affair saw a 9-6 score total half of this total. I do not see it doubling up this year with an Illinois offense that lost Chase Brown to the NFL against an Iowa defense playing supremely confident.
With one win needed to clinch the Big Ten West, Iowa is going to try to suffocate the Illini during Senior Day and play their slow, methodical type of game. Iowa won’t want to let them have too many possessions as they squeeze the life out of Illinois.
Take the under and pray for any result that has Iowa on top to lock up a trip to Indianapolis before the regular season is over.
Bonus Bet: If you can find it, think about putting a little on Nico Ragaini scoring a touchdown. It’s his final home game. He is a 6th-year senior. Iowa has worked the ball to him lately. Just feels like there is something to this.
Prediction
Prediction: Iowa 17, Illinois 7
Illinois is 59th in overall offense which is middle of the pack. They can move the ball a bit. They are 40th overall in the passing game throwing for 261 yards per game. They do have 19 touchdowns, but also 11 interceptions.
Where they struggle is running the ball. The Illini are 91st in the nation in rushing offense with just 3.94 yards per carry. Put that against Iowa’s run defense who is No. 23 overall in rushing yards per game allowed, No. 12 in yards per rush with 3.16 yards allowed, and has conceded just one rushing touchdown all year, this is a tough matchup for the Illini.
Illini starting QB Luke Altmyer is going to be starting this week after being sidelined against Indiana last week. Iowa is going to want to stifle the run game and turn this into obvious passing downs which plays right into their hands as a defense built to smother even the smallest mistake. Illinois has allowed 37 sacks, lost 8 fumbles and thrown 10 interceptions, all which are critical errors against Iowa.
Iowa plays their style one more time and it is enough. The Hawkeyes win a low-scoring affair with field position and the turnovers pick up for them gifting the offense short fields. Iowa wins this one at home in front of a raucous crowd and is headed back to Indianapolis as Big Ten West champs.
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