Chapman’s platform year was weird – he absolutely RAKED in March and April, hitting .384 with five homers and 21 RBIs before hie seemingly wore down – his last two months saw batting averages of .197 & .167, respectively and significant struggles against elevated fastballs. But he’s a defensively-sound slugger with a good track record, and someone will pay him long-term hoping that they can tweak his mechanics to better get up in the zone against heaters.
6) LHP Blake Snell, Padres
Snell might win the NL Cy Young this season, which certainly would help his free agent case, but he’s not a slam dunk top-tier pitching option. He leads all of baseball in ERA (2.25) and ERA+ (182), but also walks (99) and walk rate (5.8). The 30 year-old ran an expected ERA (3.77) and Fielding Independent Pitching (3.44) both significantly above his ERA, so regression is undoubtedly coming.
7) LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, Tigers
Rodriguez, who blocked a deadline day trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers, is expected to opt out of his deal and enter the free agent market at age 30 after two seasons with the Tigers. He put up a career best 3.30 ERA this season with 13 wins thanks to improved velocity and a tweaked pitching arsenal that saw him shift from a sinker to a four-seam fastball to accompany his cutter and changeup. He’s a solid #3 that could stretch into the role of a #2 and should be coveted by many teams.
8) LHP Jordan Montgomery, Cardinals/Rangers
Montgomery, who was dealt at the deadline by the Yankees in 2022 because they “didn’t see him making the playoff rotation”, has absolutely DEALT during the postseason for the undefeated Texas Rangers. He has two scoreless outings in his first three starts, holding the Rays and Astros scoreless across 13.1 innings with eleven hits and one walk versus eleven strikeouts. If he continues this sort of dominance through the rest of the postseason, assuming Texas advances to the World Series, he could catapult himself into the top two or three of coveted free agents this offseason and cash in BIG.
9) CF Kevin Kiermaier, Blue Jays
The long time Tampa Bay Ray, fresh off of a one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, continues to show that he hasn’t missed a beat at age 33. He batted .265 across 129 games with Toronto, both his highest inning total and batting average since 2015.
10) RHP Lucas Giolito, White Sox/Angels/Guardians
Giolito didn’t have the type of season he wanted, with 15 losses across three organizations. But he started 33 games and pitched well with the White Sox prior to being traded, going 6-6 with a 3.79 ERA. At only 29, he’ll be a candidate for a longer-term deal if there’s a team that can look past his post-trade struggles.
11) RHP Sonny Gray, Twins
The 33 year-old has MLB’s lowest FIP at 2.83, as well as the lowest homer rate among qualified pitchers with 0.4 HR/9. Named an All-Star for only the third time in his career, Gray’s undoubtedly looking for a multi-year deal that can carry him into the tail end of his career.
12) 1B Rhys Hoskins, Phillies
The first baseman missed the entire season after tearing his ACL in spring training, but slugged 57 homers over the last two seasons while batting .246. Just turning 30, he’s a candidate for a longer-term deal, especially if agent Scott Boras gets his way.
13) LHP Josh Hader, Padres
He’s the best reliever available this year, despite his peripherals (strikeout rate, walk rate) heading in the wrong direction. Some teams won’t want to spend the money required to lock him down because of it, but he’s got one of the most unique pitches in baseball in that sinker (feels like all good closers do, doesn’t it?) and is bound to get a multi-year deal for a giant chunk of change.
14) LHP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Consider this a lifetime achievement award – Between Kershaw’s injury history, playoff catastrophe, and desire to either remain in Los Angeles or return home to his native Texas, there’s not many other chances for other teams to secure the future Hall of Famer’s services.
15) DH/OF Jorge Soler, Marlins –
The man with the World Series blast heard across Braves Country, the 31 year-old slugger is expected to decline his $9M player option and re-enter the free agent market. More of a DH than an outfielder at this point in his career, the veteran played a career low 32 games (241.2 innings) in the outfield this season, all in right.
16) DH Joc Pederson, Giants
Atlanta’s World Series-winning DH with the pearls is a popular free agent request from Braves fans, but they might feel different after seeing his stats. Batting only .235/.348/.416 w/ 15 HRs in 121 games, Pederson took the field in only 37 of those contests, getting just over 200 innings on defense. He struggled against lefties to a .186 batting average, prompting the Giants to platoon him more as the season progressed.
17) 1B/DH Justin Turner, Red Sox
Almost exclusively a DH that can also cover some first base in a pinch, the 38 year-old bushy basher still has it with the bat, with this season’s .276 batting average within .02 points of his previous two years in Los Angeles. He rebounded nicely with 23 home runs, although his on-base percentage of .345 has steadily declined for four straight years.
18) DH JD Martinez, Dodgers
The DH that swapped places with Turner, Martinez also saw a surge in power when leaving Fenway Park for Dodger Stadium, breaking 30 homers for the first time since 2019. The 35 year-old doesn’t contribute anything with the glove, though, being limited to only twelve defensive innings all season for the Dodgers.
19) 3B Jeimer Candelario, Nationals/Cubs
The 29 year-old Candelario was traded from the Nationals to the Cubs at the deadline and, while not able to replicate his Washington production with Chicago, provided corner infield versatility and a veteran bat in a contending lineup. Owning one of the weakest third base arms in the majors, though, he played more first base than third base for Chicago down the stretch but doesn’t have the pop to profile well at the position.
20) CF Harrison Bader, Yankees/Reds
The defensively sound Bader struggled through another injury-filled year and the 2nd August relocation in the past two seasons. Traded from St. Louis to New York at the 2022 trade deadline, the Yankees waived him and he finished the year with the Cincinnati Reds, where he failed to impress with the bat. He’ll be looking for a one year deal to rebuild value before re-entering the market next offseason.
21) RHP Jordan Hicks, Cardinals/Blue Jays
The flamethrowing Hicks was another victim of the poor season in St. Louis, being sent to Toronto at the trade deadline. He pitched well down the stretch with his new team, though, lowering his ERA by a full run (2.63) over his St. Louis performance (3.67). Having just turned 27 and going a perfect 11/11 in save situations (7 saves, 4 holds) for the Blue Jays, Hicks is undoubtedly looking for a multi-year deal and a shot at a closing job with a contender.
22) SS Tim Anderson, White Sox –
Anderson, a one-time MVP candidate, has had a long fall from grace…and we’re not talking about that time he got punched in the face on national TV. Anderson batted only .245 this season with a single home run in 123 games. It’s a good bet that his team option, listed at $14M, isn’t going to be picked up by Chicago. But he’s expressed willingness to change positions, and maybe a change of scenery would allow the 30 year-old to rebuild some value before re-entering the free agent market.
23) RHP Kenta Maeda, Twins
The Japanese-born Maeda debuted in 2016 at age 27 and is looking to get paid one more time. After missing all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, the 35 year-old made 20 starts for the Twins while battling minor nagging injuries. But his surgically repaired elbow held up, and his new pitch mix helped him strike out over 10 batters per nine, his highest figure since being a runner-up for the Cy Young in 2020.
24) OF Teoscar Hernández, Mariners
Hernández, traded from Toronto to Seattle last November, enters the free agency after the lowest full-season slugging percentage – and 2nd highest homer total – of his career. Batting only .258 with a .435 slug but hitting 26 bombs, Teoscar made a very deliberate decision to sell out for power, striking out 211 times, just four off the MLB record.
25) OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Diamondbacks
Gurriel’s hitting free agency at the right time – fresh off the first All-Star berth of his career. The 30 year-old outfielder struggled in the summer heat of Arizona but got hot again late, setting a career high with 24 home runs. He’ll undoubtedly be looking to cash in with a multi-year deal.
26) 1B Josh Bell, Guardians/Marlins – declined to opt out for 2024
Bell, who was traded from the Guardians to the Marlins at the deadline, apparently took that personally. He upped his slugging percentage almost 100 points since the trade, putting up a .270/.338/.480 line down the stretch. His opt out comes in an offseason where the first base options aren’t too plentiful, and the 31 year-old Bell has to be hoping that the next organization he signs with, the 6th of his eight-year career, is the last.
27) 3B Max Muncy, Dodgers – signed two year, $24M extension
Muncy’s a defensively-limited veteran that’s known for high home run totals and low batting averages. One year removed from an elbow injury that sapped his power, Muncy rebounded with a .212/.333/.475 line and a career-tying 36 home runs while playing almost exclusively third base. With the Dodgers holding both a $14M club option with no buyout and a younger version of him in AAA (prospect Michael Busch), Muncy feels like a virtual lock to test the market, even if he eventually returns to Los Angeles on a more affordable deal.
28) SS/3B Gio Urshela, Angels
Urshela, a third baseman miscast as a shortstop early for Los Angeles, played in only 62 games before a broken pelvis ended his season. Capable of playing any non-shortstop infield position to an average or better level, the 32 year-old feels like a savvy veteran utility option that should have plenty of suitors.
29) LF Mark Canha, Mets/Brewers – option exercised and traded to Tigers
The 34 year-old Canha was dealt from the Mets to Brewers at the trade deadline and thrived in his new Milwaukee home, batting .287 down the stretch to help the Brewers win the NL Central division. Playing mostly left and right field but reprising his early career time at first base as well, Canha doesn’t have noticeable splits but does hit for power against lefties, making him an intriguing platoon option on a one year deal.
30) RF Max Kepler, Twins – Twins exercised 2024 club option
Kepler’s coming off of a bounce-back campaign in his platform year – .260/.332/.484 in 130 games, mostly in right field. He hit 24 homers, 2nd-highest total of his career, but also struck out 106 times at a 21.6% rate, the highest-total of his career. Committing only one error in 972.1 outfield innings, he’s a capable defender with some pop that may see his $10M option picked up for his age-30 season as Minnesota’s facing the loss of both Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor from their outfield mix and continued questions about the health and availability of Byron Buxton.
31) RHP Alex Cobb, Giants – Giants exercised 2024 club option
Cobb’s a veteran starting pitcher option on the market this year. Having just turned 36, Cobb’s fresh off of his third-straight season out west (one with the Angels, two with the Giants) in which he put up an ERA in the high 3s (3.87, to be exact). But in a sign that Father Time could potentially be catching up to him, Cobb also saw his lowest strikeout rate over a full season (7.8 K/9) since 2018 and his home run rate almost double from last season’s 0.5 HR/9 to 1.1, with 19 bombs given up.
32) RHP Marcus Stroman, Cubs –
Stroman, 32, seemed destined to opt out of the final season of his deal, forgoing $21M to hit the open market. But after tearing cartilage in his rib cage and missing six weeks, returning for the very end of the season pitch only eight innings (with eight runs and eleven hits), now there’s a question about what he’ll do. The overall season numbers for Stroman were good – 10-9, 3.95 ERA in 136.2 innings – and he was an All-Star, but the injury and subsequent underperformance now leaves lingering questions.
33) RHP Michael Lorenzen, Tigers/Phillies
Lorenzen has had a…weird season. He was good for Detroit, relatively speaking, pitching to a 3.58 ERA in eighteen starts. He goes to Philadelphia at the deadline and has immediate success, pitching eight innings with only two runs in his debut and then following that up with a complete game no-hitter. But the no-hitter seemed to take something out of him, as he gave up twenty seven runs in his next six outings, getting moved to the bullpen.
Other signings:
11/21 – RHP Kyle Gibson (Orioles) signs with Cardinals – 1-yr, $12M
11/20 – RHP Lance Lynn (White Sox/Dodgers) signs with Cardinals – 1-yr, $10M
11/19 – RHP Aaron Nola (Phillies) returns to Phillies – 7-yr, $172M
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