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Numbers behind Iowa’s anemic, struggling offense

If the Iowa Hawkeyes’ offense were an NBA player, a team would get them for a bargain.

Iowa is averaging 21.8 points this season, roughly the same average as Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson. According to Spotrac, Thompson will make over $43 million in 2023. The Hawkeyes are getting offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz for $850,000. However, that average is well below the average stipulated in Ferentz’s much-talked-about contract.

To have his contract extended beyond June 30, 2024, Ferentz, the son of Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz, needs his offense to average 25 points over 13 games this season, and the team must win seven games.

And the “Drive to 325” was born.

Nearing the midpoint of the season, the drive has suffered some flat tires, scraped a guardrail or two, and thumped over plenty of speed bumps. However, Iowa is 5-1. Its only loss came to the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions, and the Hawkeyes don’t have to play Michigan or Ohio State in the second half of the season. None of their remaining opponents is ranked in the AP Top 25. But the offense has yet to do much of anything.

Here’s a look at some numbers:

25
The scoring average is the chief stipulation in Brian Ferentz’s contract, and 25 is an incredibly modest goal. Yet, the Hawkeyes have scored 25 or more twice this season (41 against Western Michigan, 26 against Michigan State) and are currently over three points off the goal.

Their current scoring average also pales to some of the best offenses in the country. Six of the top 10 highest-scoring teams (USC, Oregon, Washington, Oklahoma, LSU, Florida State) are averaging double what Iowa scores on average. The Trojans’ offense, which has the highest points-per-game average in college football at 51.8, has scored 21 or more points in a single quarter four times this season. Oregon, which is averaging 51.6 points, has done it five times. So has Washington.

Iowa’s current average is ranked No. 105 out of 133 FBS teams. Somehow, they are ahead of 10 other Power 5 teams.

118
Speaking of being ranked in the 100s for all the wrong reasons, Iowa ranks 118th or lower, out of 133 FBS teams, in the following eight categories:

Red zone touchdown rate: 118

Points per drive: 119

Three-and-out rate: 127

Yards-per-play: 128

Yards-per-game: 130

Yards-per-game: 132

Yards-per-drive: 132

Success rate average: 132 (128th in rushing, 131st in passing)

The production metrics and scoring averages put a numeric face on what has happened in Iowa games. The Hawkeyes have scored just 12 touchdowns on offense. Quarterback Cade McNamara leads the team with four. Two running backs, the Kentucky Wildcats’ Ray Davis and Boise State Broncos’ Ashton Jeanty, have each scored 12 touchdowns by themselves this season. If it weren’t for Indiana, which has scored only 11 touchdowns, Iowa would have the fewest touchdowns among Power 5 teams.

Iowa’s leading scorer is kicker Drew Stevens with 43 points. That could be indicative of some of the issues that have plagued the Hawkeyes. While other teams get aggressive on their opponents’ side of the field, Iowa elects to kick. According to ESPN Stats and Information, Iowa has 11 field goal attempts this season when the line of scrimmage is the opponent’s 30-yard line or closer. That is tied for ninth-most in FBS this season. Stevens has made nine of those kicks.

And even if a drive crosses midfield, the Hawkeyes aren’t going for points. They’ve punted four times when the line of scrimmage was the 50-yard line or into opponent territory.

76
The Hawkeyes rank dead last in yards per game, averaging 249.2. The Hawkeyes have had 232 plays from scrimmage gain four or fewer yards, which is tied with Ball State for the 45th-most this season. Three other Big Ten teams have more than Iowa: Maryland (235), Purdue (236) and Northwestern (243).

If offensive anemia were a work of art, Iowa’s Sept. 23rd game against Penn State would be “Citizen Kane.” It had layers and depth and many symbols of offensive woes. Iowa had just 76 total yards in the game. McNamara completed 6 of 16 passes for 42 yards, and Iowa running backs averaged 1.2 yards per carry. For good measure, the team fumbled six times and lost four of them. To be fair to Iowa, Penn State currently leads college football in total defense and is allowing just 9.6 points per game.

But at least a receiver caught a pass in that game. The same can’t be said for last week’s game against the Purdue Boilermakers. In a game that Iowa won, 20-14, backup quarterback Deacon Hill went 6-of-21 with all of his completions going to either tight end Erick All or running back Kaleb Johnson, who also added 134 yards rushing.

The Purdue game actually raised many of Iowa’s production numbers. Iowa is now averaging 4.49 yards per play, last in the Big Ten and 128th in FBS overall, ahead of only Akron (4.46), East Carolina (4.43), Nevada (4.43), Kent State (4.32) and Sam Houston (3.93). This is an improvement over last season when Iowa was averaging 4.24 yards per play. By comparison, this season, USC is second in FBS (8.49 yards per play), trailing only Washington (8.81), and both are almost doubling Iowa’s per-play average.

Through six games this season, Iowa has scored 131 points, leaving Brian Ferentz’s offense 194 points shy of the total of 325, the number needed to average 25 points per game. The 2019 LSU Tigers, the highest-scoring team in college football history, needed only seven games to score 325 points that season.

Iowa has six games remaining in the regular season and likely a bowl game. Without McNamara, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL, the Hawkeyes would need to score 27.7 points per game in the second half of the season to raise their scoring average back to the level stipulated in Ferentz’s contact. For a good sign for Iowa, that’s very close to Iowa star basketball player Caitlin Clark’s scoring average.

But would it matter? The Hawkeyes are second in the Big Ten West standings behind the Wisconsin Badgers, whom they play this weekend. Only two of Iowa’s remaining opponents (Wisconsin, Rutgers) are better, statistically, than Iowa on offense. So the Hawkeyes, despite their offensive calamities, could return to the Big Ten title game for the second time in three seasons.

Of course, they’d then likely have either a rematch with Penn State or face the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines or the No. 3 Ohio State. And all three of those teams are outscoring Iowa by two touchdowns or more per game.