NBA Southeast Division Predictions: Heat Hope to Repeat Despite Departures

Miami Heat's Josh Richardson made this season one to remember

How many playoff teams will emerge from this division? Which offseason additions will have the biggest impact? SI has scouts’ takes and expert picks.

The Southeast Division enters the 2023–24 season with the Heat seemingly standing alone as a conference contender as they seek to replicate last year’s run to the NBA Finals, while the Hawks, Magic, Hornets and Wizards vie for a spot in the playoffs. What else should you keep an eye on from these five teams?

Scouts’ Anonymous Takes (as told to Chris Mannix)

Heat

I think the losses Miami took are really big. If there’s ever a team that you can never underestimate, it’s Miami, but Gabe Vincent was a 3-and-D at a combo guard level and [Max] Strus was such a good glue guy. In the NBA, you look for these point guards and you say, “Are they scorers?” And then if they can initiate offense, it’s huge. And Vincent could initiate offense. So they’re going to lose that big time. And he was just huge for them both in the regular season and the playoffs.

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Strus did a little of the scoring and shooting. He helped create that style of play that they had. They were one of the more unique teams with having to run and chase shooters around the floor. The throw-and-go actions, pitches. So that changes a little bit of the dynamic of how they play. And then defensively, Strus wasn’t a liability. I mean, obviously he wasn’t the best defender, but he was just such a hard-nosed defender, scheme-oriented guy. So I think it’s huge.

Josh Richardson has really struggled since he left there but yet at the same time, he still produced numbers and been annoying defensively. You hear stuff about him in the locker rooms, that he might be a little selfish and whatnot. Well, if there’s any place that won’t be a factor it is Miami. So I bet you see a really good Josh Richardson. So that’ll help replace some of what they lost.

Tyler Herro is a very good scorer that can play in pick-and-roll and a complete liability on defense. The Tyler Herro where it doesn’t matter how he plays defense was the bubble Tyler Herro. Remember him? That’s the where it was like, “Who gives a s— how he plays defense?” We haven’t seen that guy because he’s not scoring at that clip, he’s not shooting at that clip. I remember watching that guy and thinking “This guy’s a franchise guard.” They just dismantled Boston. But overall he’s been nowhere near that guy. He can really score but he doesn’t give you too much other stuff. He helps them play a style that they want to play and if thTyler Herroey end up keeping him I think that he’ll still be a pain in the ass. You will have to chase him around and they’ll utilize him and it’ll be fine.

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I love Jimmy Butler’s ability to get in the paint. You can’t really keep him out of it. You can’t really stay in front of him. His ability to get angles, and then his footwork once he gets in the paint and his strength is great. And then on top of that he’s got that dog intimidation factor that, if you’re light in the mental, he’s got two, three steps on you in your head before the game even starts. And that’s a real thing in the NBA. And then defensively he plays hard as hell, super competitive, and he makes all the winning plays around offense and defense. I think deep down in the NBA, a lot of people don’t love him as a personality. But everyone respects him.

Atlanta’s ceiling isn’t that high. Trae Young’s good, he’s dynamic, but he’s such a liability defensively and he’s a tiny little scorer. I think overall, the combo of him and Dejounte Murray is O.K. Murray’s limited because of his shooting. So what I think you’re going to see is, you’re going to see a really well-tuned, spaced, organized team on both ends of the floor that will be very solid if they avoid the drama because of Quin Snyder. They’re going to run, they’re going to kill you with pick-and-rolls. They’re going to kill you with Trae Young, they’re going to kill you with that type of stuff. And I think that they’ll be near the top, if not the top of that division simply just because it’s pretty unintimidating.

De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, Clint Capela are solid role guys. Hunter’s good. If he makes a little bit more of a jump, I think he’ll be very good for them. But yeah, they’re just going to be solid.

The Young-Murray backcourt is not bad because they are very different. Murray is an attack-first type of guy, and then Young is obviously a dynamic scorer. You can stagger those two. Murray is not really a playmaker, so that hinders them. If he was just a dynamic shoot-it-up three-point scorer, I think that would help. But he gets his points from slashing, driving, pick-and-roll midrange. So I think that kind of hurts them.

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I like [Onyeka] Okongwu. He’s bouncy, he moves really well, can protect the rim, can roll. And I think in the pick-and-rolls with Trae Young he is good. And then once Quin gets his system in there, to me, he’ll run some actions and you’ll see him be pretty effective.

I think the big question with Orlando is what type of jump is Paolo Banchero going to make and what type of jump is Franz Wagner going to make? Wagner came in as a rookie and surprised everybody, and looked like one of the more dynamic guys from that draft. But then, to me, the league caught up to him a little. And from just normal preparing for him, game planning, whether it was blitzes, double teams, he didn’t struggle but he didn’t progress to the level of what he looked like his rookie year. His rookie year, he looked like he could potentially be a franchise wing. So can he make that jump? Can he be that, basically, No. 2 guy behind Banchero? He’s dynamic, he can hit threes, he can play in pick-and-roll, dribble handoffs. So is that just what he was last year or does he make a jump? I like him. I hope he does, but I was a little disappointed in kind of just the oomph he had this year after his rookie year.

Banchero will probably be a beast. You’re always going to run into the fact that he can’t shoot, but if he just keeps harnessing his physicality, if he works at it and all that stuff, as he develops as kind of an adult basketball player, he’s in the Giannis mold. Not to that level, to that extreme, but that’s the type of, “Okay, he can’t shoot, but who cares?” He’s just going to dominate you, he’s going to eat up your space. He’s just going to be such a pain in the ass because you can’t switch guys onto him. I think he can make that jump, but we’ll see. Playing for Team USA is going to help. It always does. He can be a small ball five for the Magic. That wouldn’t be the worst thing. If you look at the Bucks, I think the mold for him is, how the Bucks utilize Giannis, and the Bucks kind of use him three through five. And that’s Banchero too. He’s not going near that level, but that’s what you’re hoping for.

I think Markelle Fultz just is what he is. He’s always going to be injury-prone, which is the biggest issue. He’s got great size, great length, great power and force. He can’t shoot but at the same time, I think that he can do more than what we’ve seen if he just can stay healthy for a year. And that just means he’s a long, strong, athletic guard that can attack and get downhill. The shots are never going to be there. And then I can’t count on him staying healthy.

[Jalen] Suggs is like Wagner. I didn’t see a jump last season. And he has got to stay healthy, number one. He’s proven he’s injury-prone. He has not looked nearly as dynamic and explosive as he did coming out of Gonzaga. And then, once again, another guy that struggles to consistently hit the three. So I think he’s going to be who he was last season. But in your third year, that’s a problem when you’re a lottery pick. So I don’t see him making a jump. The only way that changes if he comes back with a reliable jump shot.

Wizards

Jordan Poole is similar to the Herro. He’s a scorer. But I don’t know if he can do anything else. Can he be the main guy? I don’t think so. Will he put up numbers like the main guy on a bad team? Of course. But can he carry your team? No way. And then defensively, he’s a liability. He has picked up a rep for having an arrogance about him. It will be really interesting to see if he buys in and how it goes in Washington. I don’t see anything special happening there.

Corey Kispert has potential. He’s more of the catch and shoot, screening action, run around, attack closeout mold, kind of potentially, of the mold of Bogdan Bogdanović. Bogdanović plays more pick-and-roll, but something like that. I want to see if he can really shoot it at that lights-out clip, because if he can’t, he kind of lacks athleticism and might end up being a liability.

Deni Avdija is the guy who I think doesn’t get enough credit. That guy guards all the best players. He’s not a lights out shooter, but he’s got a really good feel for how to play. And to me, he’s like a gem. If they start just trading these pieces, he’s a guy you need to watch. To me, he’s the kind of guy who can go to a really good team and make them ten times better. He’s like the kind of guy Brad Stevens gets. Like, “How the hell did they get him for nothing?” pickup, which Brad does every year.

[Kyle] Kuzma is really good. He’s a good all-around player. He’s a pain in the butt to guard. But to me, they’ve invested in him like he’s the No. 1 guy, and I think he’s that classic No. 2/3 guy on a team. Overall, just solid. Him and Poole will be a pain in the butt to guard. But I just don’t know. I don’t see anything that makes me excited about that team. I don’t see it.

Charlotte is a s— show. And I feel bad because Steve Clifford’s not a s— show. Last year they were just a bunch of real organized misfits. Even at the end of the year, they were just so organized and solid. They just had no talent to win.

Gordon Hayward is tough because if he’s healthy and doesn’t have injury problems, that dude is nasty. But he’s never healthy. I think if they can stay healthy, there’ll actually be a little bit of [a] thorn in that division’s side, because they’ll be simple, they’ll be organized, they’ll have a method of attack. Defensively, they’ll be disciplined, they’ll have game plans, and I think it’s a good environment with a coach like that to nurture along Brandon Miller’s development. I mean, I don’t expect him to carry a team right now, I think he has that potential in him, but he’ll be put in positions to succeed there offensively and defensively. So it’ll be good for that. But maybe they finish ahead of Washington, but I don’t know if they make any type of noise.

LaMelo [Ball] is a guy that will probably flame out. I just don’t think he does enough all around. I actually don’t think he’s super dynamic offensively, I think he’s just super dazzling. He’s super dazzling. He’s the dude with the best costume. He’s just all the dazzle and he’s not that dynamic. Can he shoot it really well from three? I don’t know. Yeah, he’s pretty good and crafty in the pick-and-roll, he’s not strong at all, so he gets pushed around. He can’t defend anyone. I don’t see it. I don’t see it, besides the cool passes.

Miles Bridges coming back really helps them. I mean if he’s in any type of shape like he was that year before, he gives them what they have in PJ Washington, which is a ton of positional variability. They can shift those guys around, they can play those guys, essentially, two through five. And he can get you a bucket, him and PJ Washington can cause mismatches on switches. So he kind of gives you a one-two punch with PJ, which you saw two years ago in a game planning standpoint. If you just got to worry about switching on to P.J. Washington, it’s not that big of a deal, and you’re willing to live. But all of a sudden, if it’s PJ, and then it’s Bridges, and then it’s PJ, you got to start thinking schematically like, “Okay, we switching. What are we doing here? And then how are we watching our matchups a little more?”

The most interesting thing about the …

Heat

What do you get when you’re hoping to engineer a trade for a superstar set to make upward of $60 million in 2026–27? A summer without many roster additions, for one. If anything, it was an offseason of notable departures, with Vincent and Strus, key members of last season’s conference-champion roster, moving on to new teams. The Heat’s ability to take the next step—an NBA crown—may well depend on their pursuit of another star, especially with Damian Lillard no longer available.

Hawks

It’s easy to look at the Hawks’ unremarkable roster changes—Patty Mills, Wesley Matthews and Kobe Bufkin in; John Collins out—and assume this season will be much like the last one. But keep in mind that this is coach Snyder’s first full season in Atlanta. The February hire can install his Advantage Basketball principles—a style that could create far better ball movement for a club that ranked in the bottom three in assist percentage last season.

Magic

The curiosity here is how Orlando will manage its glut of guards. Fultz was solid in his first full season back from an ACL injury. Cole Anthony had the team’s best assist-to-turnover ratio. Suggs was much more efficient in Year 2. And Gary Harris, finally healthy, was back to being the solid player he was in Denver. The Magic added to the mix in June, when they spent their two first-round picks on guards Anthony Black and Jett Howard.

Hornets

Other names, such as rookie Brandon Miller, star guard Ball and Bridges, will all draw attention. (Bridges, who can return in November, sat out 2022–23 after pleading no contest to a felony domestic violence charge last fall.) But don’t overlook 7’ 1” center Mark Williams, who was a defensive game-changer as a rookie. The Hornets allowed just 112.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, compared to 116.6 points when he was off.

Wizards

Don’t be surprised if Poole, who saw 65.7 touches per game last season with the Warriors, gets closer to 90 with the Wizards as he steps into the gap left by the departures of Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis. How will Poole—a player with a history of iffy shot selection and poor defense—perform as a face of the franchise? And can coach Wes Unseld Jr.—facing questions of his own after back-to-back 35-win seasons—help Poole improve?