My take

1. For now, at least, the questions about the goaltending of the Edmonton Oilers have been answered. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a crisis in the weeks or months to come. If we can count on NHL goalies for anything, it’s for them to go on hot and cold streaks. Edmonton goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have generally been hot in recent months, with Pickard up for a few games, then down for a few games, and Skinner on two cold streaks this year, but also two hot streaks.

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Just now, as Pickard starts against Montreal, Oilers appear to have answered questions in net
Author of the article:David Staples • Edmonton Journal
Published Mar 19, 2024 • Last updated 4 hours ago • 3 minute read
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Edmonton Oilers goaltender Calvin Pickard has helped stabilize the crease since he got called up from Bakersfield in November. PHOTO BY DAVID BLOOM /Postmedia
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This in from Jack Michaels of the Edmonton Oilers broadcast team, news that Calvin Pickard will get the start against the Montreal Canadiens, with Troy Stecher in for Vinny Desharnais: Desharnais won’t play tonight—replaced by Stecher—Pickard “vs Montreal.”

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My take
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1. For now, at least, the questions about the goaltending of the Edmonton Oilers have been answered. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a crisis in the weeks or months to come. If we can count on NHL goalies for anything, it’s for them to go on hot and cold streaks. Edmonton goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have generally been hot in recent months, with Pickard up for a few games, then down for a few games, and Skinner on two cold streaks this year, but also two hot streaks.

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They both have different styles of play, but both are making most of the big saves and not letting in many stinker goals against. And when Edmonton decides to rest its starting goalie, it’s not some major matter, just a solid move by the coach giving his starter needed rest by replacing him with a second competent goalie.

2. Pickard’s .919 save percentage is the 4th best save percentage of any NHL goalie this year who has played 10 or more games. Skinner’s .908 save percent ranks 27th.

If you go with NHL goalies who are bona-fide starters — those who have played 40 or more games — Skinner ranks 12th overall, tied with Juuse Saros and just behind Ilya Sorokin and Jakob Markstrom, so not in bad company at all.

If we cut down that starter’s category to the Knoblauch-era only, Skinner has a .917 save percentage and ranks fifth overall for goalies with a heavy workload, behind only Connor Hellebuyck at .930 when it comes to Western Conference rival starters in that time period.

3. We’ve tracked major goalie mistakes on on goals against at the Cult of Hockey since the 2007-08. The project has evolved over time, as has our understanding of what constitutes a mistake by a goalie on a goal against. I’ll suggest we’ve been reasonably consistent, though with a trend to being somewhat more forgiving on screened shots as time has gone by, which is why you’ll note in recent years mistakes on goals against has trended down. That said, the Oilers defence and its goalies are getting better since the horrendous Decade of Darkness-plus era.

4. Skinner has made just 21 mistakes on goals against in 2821 minutes, 0.45 per game. It’s about how he did last year in the regular season, and similar to what we saw from Mike Smith in his two best years as an Oilers starter, 2020-21 and 2019-20. Pickard is not far behind at 0.51 mistakes on goals against per game, essentially one every second game he has played. In the Decade of Darkness+, the lowest totals were posted by Jeff Drouin-Deslaurers, 1.5 per game in 2009-10, Ilya Bryzgalov, 1.48 per game in 2013-14, and Cam Talbot, 1.27 per game in 2018-19.

5. Skinner is at his best when he’s squaring up to the shooter and sucking in shots, smothering them. He’s an excellent first shot goalie, but can struggle on rebounds and cross-seam plays. He’s at his best behind a disciplined defence that covers off players sneaking into the slot. Pickard? He’s more of a scrambler, more likely to give up a rebound on the first shot, but so far able to cover off most of those rebound attempts.

6. As for Stecher going in for Desharnais, it’s crucial for the Oilers to see what they have in Stecher. If that means players like Ceci and Desharnais sit out the odd game, so be it. It’s also the case that most players are nursing one injury or another just now, so sitting out the odd game can also be a benefit.