Can Ohio State lose to Michigan but make the CFP? Buckeyes’ biggest concern?

Ohio State is preparing to play Minnesota on Saturday, but . . . the Buckeyes are 27.5-point favorites. Everybody outside the program already has their eyes on next weekend’s matchup of Buckeyes versus Wolverines in Ann Arbor.

I figured this would be a good week for a mailbag, and sure enough you submitted plenty of questions. I’m going to try and keep my answers short so I can get to all of them.

Let’s get into it.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan this year, will they replace Ryan Day with Mike Vrabel? — Andre E.

No. Ryan Day isn’t getting fired with Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith already on the way out. Maybe we’ll revisit this question after the season, but I feel pretty strongly about where things stand.

Are there any realistic scenarios where OSU loses to Michigan but makes it into the CFP top 4? — John B.

I was talking about this with a few other beat writers on Tuesday, and there IS a scenario where this happens. Admittedly, it’s very far-fetched, but there’s a slight chance. A lot would need to happen, however.

• Ohio State needs Georgia to run the table and beat one-loss Alabama in the SEC title game.

• Michigan would likely go undefeated, so those are the top two spots gone.

• From there, Ohio State needs Washington to lose prior to the Pac-12 title game (which could happen this week against Oregon State). That would make Washington a one-loss team, but if the Huskies beat Oregon in the title game, that would still likely put them above Ohio State. So Oregon also needs to take a second regular-season loss and then beat Washington in the title game, so that both teams have two losses.

• If Florida State loses in the ACC title game, does the committee like the Noles over Ohio State, purely because of that Seminoles title game appearance? I think Ohio State’s resume would be better, but if FSU loses to a one-loss Louisville team in the ACC title game, does that change things altogether? I don’t see the Seminoles losing two games, so let’s just put them into the Playoff in the third slot for hypothetical purposes.

• That leaves one spot, and Texas is a one-loss team right now. The Longhorns have the Alabama win, and they would have a Big 12 title in this fact pattern. I think Ohio State needs Texas to drop a game as well, maybe in the Big 12 title game.